业界声音｜胡柏山：产业政策对培育未来产业、带动产业升级至关重要

胡柏山 

博鳌亚洲论坛机构理事 

vivo 执行副总裁、首席运营官 

HU Baishan

Corporate Member of the Boao Forum for Asia, 

Executive Vice President & COO, vivo

问：目前各国，包括美国和欧洲国家，陆续推出芯片和绿色产业政策。你如何看待产业政策对科技创新活力的影响？

答：当前新一轮科技革命和产业变革加速演进，前沿、颠覆性技术持续涌现，产业政策对培育未来产业、带动产业升级、开辟新赛道、塑造新质生产力有至关重要的作用。

首先，行业创新瓶颈问题要求基础理论、底层技术的突破，而通过国家重大科技项目攻关、国家重点实验室研究等，可以加快技术突破，打破创新瓶颈。

其次，蒸汽机、内燃机、电气化、信息革命都是单一技术革命，而当前正在演进的智能革命，则是人工智能、虚拟现实、空间感知、脑机接口、生物工程等各种底层技术的混合革命，更需要跨技术领域、跨产业的协作和产业政策的指引，发挥国家战略科技领军作用，打造原创技术策源地。

最后，基础理论、前沿技术和颠覆性技术突破的投入巨大，但又具有高度不确定性，企业往往很难承担如此高的风险，以举国之力对决定未来国家竞争力的方向进行重投入犹为必要。

vivo坚持用户导向的差异化创新，夯实研发底座，希望在国家产业政策的支持下，促进产业链、供应链集体繁荣，加速产业转型升级，促进新质生产力快速发展。

问：AI在去年的突破性进展横空出世，短期内你预期哪些领域的科技革命最可能逼近“奇点”？

答：我们企业和用户共同成长29年，作为非常了解用户需求的科技企业，vivo更擅长去判断哪些消费级科技革命逼近“奇点”。首先，要看用户需求变化有没有形成显著趋势；其次，我们会在技术研发过程中，寻找能够满足用户需求的科技长赛道。如果用户需求趋势显著，且对应的技术长赛道有跨越式的进展，说明“奇点”可能到来。

近年来，用户对于科技的“随身便携”需求愈发旺盛，我们期待一个“万能”的科技产品随时随地都在我们身边。我们当然可以把这种需求理解为对“手机行业”的基础需求，但考虑到近期不断突破的通信、芯片、人工智能和影像传感技术等，一款隐藏在人们身边可以提供各种智慧服务的“机器人”成为可能，这也许就是一个“奇点”。简单来讲，我们认为手机行业本身就是科技革命最有可能逼近的“奇点”。

多年来，vivo中央研究院基于用户需求和技术趋势选择在“设计、影像、系统、性能”四个长赛道上深耕；2023年vivo还推出了自己的技术品牌“蓝科技”，其中vivo自研通用大模型矩阵——蓝心大模型，是手机行业里发布最早、能力最强的开放大模型之一。手机有真实的用户需求，行业里也有大量类似vivo蓝科技的科技创新不断涌现，相信很快会有突破性进展的科技产品出现。

Q: Currently, various countries, including the United States and European nations, are successively introducing policies on semiconductors and green industries. How do you view the impact of industrial policies on the vitality of technological innovation?

A: At present, as the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation accelerates, cutting-edge and disruptive technologies continue to emerge. Industrial policies play a crucial role in nurturing future industries, driving industrial upgrades, opening new tracks, and shaping new quality productive forces.

First, the innovation bottleneck in the industry requires breakthroughs in basic theories and underlying technologies. This can be accelerated through tackling key technological projects at the national level and research in national key laboratories, thus breaking through the innovation bottleneck.

Secondly, the steam engine, internal combustion engine, electrification, and information revolution were all revolutions of single technologies. However, the ongoing intelligence revolution is a hybrid revolution of various underlying technologies such as artificial intelligence, virtual reality, spatial perception, brain-computer interfaces, and bioengineering. This revolution requires more cross-technological and cross-industrial collaboration and guidance from industrial policies. It emphasizes the leading role of national strategic technological initiatives to create original technology sources.

Lastly, the investment in basic theories, frontier technologies, and disruptive technological breakthroughs is enormous and highly uncertain. It’s often difficult for enterprises to bear such high risks, making it necessary for national efforts to re-invest in directions that determine the future competitiveness of the country.

vivo insists on user-oriented differentiated innovation, solidifying its R&D foundation, and hopes to promote the collective prosperity of the industrial and supply chains under the support of national industrial policies. This aims to accelerate industrial transformation and upgrading, and promote the rapid development of new quality productive forces.

Q: AI saw significant breakthroughs in 2023. In which areas do you foresee that technology will most likely approach “singularity” in the short term?

A: vivo, as a tech company deeply attuned to user needs, excels at identifying which consumer tech revolutions are nearing the “singularity.” First, we look for significant trends in user needs; next, during our technology R&D process, we seek long-term tech avenues that can meet these needs. If there’s a noticeable trend in user demands and corresponding technology paths are making leapfrog progress, it indicates that the “singularity” might be approaching.

In recent years, there’s been a growing demand for technology to be “portable and personal, ” with expectations for a “do-it-all” tech product that’s always by our side. While this demand could be seen as a fundamental need within the mobile phone industry, considering the recent breakthroughs in communication, chip technology, artificial intelligence, and imaging sensors, the possibility of a “robot” that blends into our surroundings and provides various smart services has emerged. This could well be a “singularity.” In short, we believe the mobile phone industry itself is where the tech revolution is most likely to approach the “singularity.”

Over the years, the vivo Central Research Institute focuses on “design, imaging, systems, and performance” based on user demands and technological trends. In 2023, vivo also launched its technology brand “BlueLM” including vivo’s self-developed general large model matrix—BlueLM, one of the earliest released and most capable open large models in the mobile industry. With real user demands and a wealth of technological innovations like vivo’s BlueLM emerging in the industry, we believe it won’t be long before breakthrough tech products appear.